Short Term Review

A new Short Term Review has been released. Below is the "Plain English Summary" from the first page.

Stocks: In our last comment we suggested that things could not get much better. Well, in the end, maybe they did not. We have to be prepared for a decline that could handily exceed 35%.

10-Year Yields: From a non-Elliott perspective we respect the possibility that yields are engaged in a head-and-shoulders bottoming formation that has been in progress since early 2008. Moreover, both intermediate and long term momentum oscillators have a bullish bias Finally, sentiment is no worse that neutral. All of this suggests that the underlying pressures are still up, not down.

US Dollar: We still think the dollar’s pattern from its November 2008 high is a corrective structure, which means that the rally leading into that high should prove to be the first leg of a larger uptrend. If so, then the upside potential in the months ahead should significantly outweigh the downside risk, even allowing for a test of the recent lows.

Commodities: Gold may have had an important downside reversal last week and it would seem that the downtrend that began six weeks ago has more life left in it.

For the full report, please visit http://wminsights.com for subscription information.