"Positively" Boring

On Thursday the S&P 500 rallied 0.7%. Once again, breadth and volume ratios were solidly positive. The index closed at a new rally high, but failed to make a new high on an intra-day basis. Meanwhile, both the DJIA and the NASDAQ recorded an inside day (a lower high and higher low than those seen on Wednesday).

As the nearby chart shows, the S&P has been in a tight range (992-1017) for nine days. Interestingly enough, the daily Coppock Curve peaked nine days ago. In recent months, most daily Coppock trends have lasted 7-16 trading days, so a case can be made that the current momentum pressures may still need more time to pan out.

S&P Hourly with Hourly & Daily Coppock Curves

That said, the pressures of the past nine days have proven to be a time correction, rather than a price correction. The resulting consolidation has not damaged the trend and may yet prove to be a continuation pattern within the post-July rally. Under this scenario, the end result could prove to be a net positive. So, even though the past two weeks can be viewed as boring (and increasingly difficult to write about), they may turn out to be “positively” boring.

In the meantime, we will stick with our recent parameters. The potential still exists for continued probing of increasingly stubborn chart and Fibonacci resistance in the 1007-1048 range.

Conversely, a violation of 991-990 would lock in the rally from the July 8 low as a complete pattern. That said, the July low itself at 869 is still viewed as tactical support.